It always helps to assess how the farming conditions are going for our neighbouring province.
In the Eastern Cape, the citrus harvest season is at its tail end, and we will soon start with the summer crop season.
The Western Cape has a winter rainy season, and slightly different dynamics driving its agricultural economy.
The agricultural discussions surrounding the Western Cape have primarily focused on the risks presented by the US trade policy shifts in recent months.
This is understandable, as the province has greater exposure to the US market relative to other provinces, mainly through its exports of citrus, wine, table grapes, and ostrich products, among other produce.
Securing better market access in the US with relatively low tariffs is key to maintaining the competitiveness of these industries in that market.
Still, some encouraging agricultural developments in the province are worth highlighting, primarily in winter crop production.
While it is still early to form a firm view, it seems likely SA will have a decent winter crop season, primarily boosted by the Western Cape’s harvest.
At the start of the 2025-26 winter crop season, there was some uncertainty about the weather outlook, and the relatively higher input costs also added pressure to farmers.
However, the weather turned out to be a positive surprise, presenting favourable rainfall across most farming regions of the Western Cape.
This province accounts for more than two-thirds of SA’s winter crop production.
The favourable rains of the past few weeks have enhanced crop growing conditions, providing optimism about the province’s potential winter crop harvest.
While earlier forecasts from the SA Weather Service (SAWS) had signalled a more challenging environment, the reality has been positive, with continuous rains.
For example, at the start of July, the SAWS said: “During late winter and early spring, the south-western parts of the country are still expected to receive below-normal rainfall.”
Favourable rainfall for the coming months remains critical for maintaining crop-growing conditions through to maturity.
In other winter crop-growing regions of the country, the longer than usual summer rainfall period improved soil moisture and dam levels, all of which are beneficial to winter crops, especially in irrigation regions.
There are sufficient water supplies to support crops through the season.
While some input product prices were somewhat elevated when the season started, farmers maintained optimism about the area they would plant.
For example, at the end of July, the Crop Estimates Committee reported that the 2025-26 winter crop farmers’ plantings were at 824,120ha, up 1% from the previous season.
This comprises wheat, barley, canola, oats, and sweet lupins.
A closer look at the major crops reveals some minor deviations, with all crop area plantings increasing, except for barley, which is declining.
These data included all provinces, with the Western Cape accounting for the largest share.
Looking at the specifics, focusing mainly on the major winter crops, farmers planted the 2025-26 wheat crop on 512,500ha, up 1% from the previous season.
If favourable weather conditions continue, along with a decent yield of 3.97 tonnes per hectare, which aligns with the five-year average, SA’s wheat harvest would be 2.03 million tonnes.
This would be up 5% from the 2024-25 production season.
In the case of canola, farmers planted 164,900ha, down 1% from the previous season.
Similarly, if we apply a five-year average yield of 1.89 tonnes per hectare, SA could harvest 311,661 tonnes, representing a 7% increase from the previous season.
There is also broad optimism about the prospects for oats production.
Unlike other crops, farmers slashed the barley plantings by 5% to 95,700ha in the 2025-26 season.
If applying a five-year average yield of 3.58 tonnes per hectare to barley, we will have a possible harvest of 342,606 tonnes, down 8% from the previous season.
In essence, while the Western Cape’s agricultural economy faces heightened uncertainty regarding the impact of US trade policy on SA, there remain industries that are on a promising path.
- Wandile Sihlobo is the chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of SA.