President Cyril Ramaphosa enters the final lap in his journey towards a second term as ANC head like a wounded buffalo.
That is not a bad thing in politics.
An injured buffalo would be more dangerous and less complacent than one without a bruising battle.
He is being egged on by, among others, Gwede Mantashe, a grubby fighter who is battling for his survival in the ANC top six.
Mantashe’s loss will signal a big loss for the Eastern Cape, whose candidates did not dominate the branch nomination process.
The Ramaphosa camp is confident of success when the ANC holds its national conference from tomorrow.
Its only concern is where it takes all top six positions, but fails to dominate the national executive committee.
There are 80 NEC seats. Sihle Zikalala , a stubby man from KwaZulu-Natal, leads from the ANC branch nomination.
Zikalala was, until last year, ANC chair in KwaZulu-Natal and also its premier.
He lost both positions last year when his opponents gained control of the party in an elective conference.
Zikalala is not just vertically challenged.
He is the man who chased down a looter during the 2021 riots and beat him up. He later apologised.
We must look at its history to understand the required stature for the position.
In the previous conferences, Winnie Madikizela-Mandela, Trevor Manuel, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma and Malusi Gigaba sat at the summit as the people with the most votes for NEC posts.
This position always denoted serious political stature, and future political moves could be predicted by simply analysing the list and who was at its summit.
This time it is Zikalala at the top, with the Eastern Cape’s enfant terrible — Andile Lungisa — at number 10.
Lungisa is that guy who went to jail after launching a glass jar at an opponent during a Nelson Mandela Bay council ruckus.
The nominations are not a 100% guarantee that the nominees will make it, but they are the only official indicator of branch support.
Branch delegates will vote at the conference based on the nomination list with Zikalala and Faith Muthambi, figures discredited from the Zuma years.
The Ramaphosa campaign team is concerned that he may be stuck with a weak and or hostile NEC.
It is from the NEC that cabinet ministers are chosen.
Otherwise, the president will have difficulty running the party when its most senior politicians do not get prime positions.
The NEC holds its scheduled meetings bimonthly and is the most senior committee between conferences.
It is this body that decided to “recall” both Jacob Zuma and Thabo Mbeki.
Establishing the national working committee (NWC) will be the first task of the new NEC.
The NWC is a 26-member body that holds meetings every two weeks and oversees the party’s day-to-day affairs.
A divided NEC will lead to a split NWC and, therefore, more strife for Ramaphosa in the next five years.
To avoid this situation, Ramaphosa backers say they are working hard to campaign for their preferred politicians to make the NEC.
They have names like health minister Joe Phaahla and former Western Cape strongmen Richard Dyanti and Mcebisi Skwatcha as their way to shore up the Team Ramaphosa camp at the NEC.
They are looking for younger politicians to pad up their camp.
All these names need to be nominated from the floor on conference day, hoping enough delegates will vote for them.
Judging by the nomination process, Ramaphosa looks like a front-runner compared with former health minister Zweli Mkhize.
Theoretically, another candidate can be elected from the floor if he or she gets 25% of the plus-minus 4,000 delegates’ votes.
A lot needs to happen for Ramaphosa to lose the election.
One, Paul Mashatile, the treasurer-general, will have to commit to the Mkhize camp.
Mashatile is the leading candidate for ANC deputy president.
Of his votes, 5,000 come from KwaZulu-Natal — more precisely, the Mkhize camp.
For Mashatile to make it as deputy president, he needs the support of either camp.
He falls flat if he does not choose the Mkhize camp, and Ramaphosa does not embrace him.
KwaZulu-Natal will pull the rug from under his feet, and he will remain without a broadbase, besides his Gauteng stronghold.
That will serve to split the battle for number two.
Enter Senzo Mchunu, water affairs and sanitation minister.
Mchunu is Team Ramaphosa’s preferred running mate, but did not get enough votes during the branch nominations.
Team Ramaphosa relies on his background as a former KwaZulu-Natal kingpin to dilute the hostility from that province towards the president.
But they have an internal problem within the CR camp.
Ronald Lamola and Eastern Cape chair Oscar Mabuyane are both on the ballot as deputy president candidates, trailing Mashatile.
Both have refused to step down and make way for Mchunu. There is still time to persuade them.
Mchunu enters the race with trepidation.
Five years ago, he ran for secretary-general and lost out controversially to Ace Magashule.
So confident of victory was he, his supporters hoisted him on their shoulders and rushed him to the stage as voting outcome numbers were being announced. Only to find out Magashule got more votes. Nobody knows how.
He is in murky waters again and Ramaphosa’s team needs him to complete its optics.
A failure to ram through its preferred candidate, say Mashatile wins the number two spot, will mean Ramaphosa is once again saddled with a deputy he does not want.
One of the strategic options is for Ramaphosa and the team to embrace Mashatile to avoid hostilities at the conference and post-event.
But his staunchest allies absolutely loath the idea.
They include Mondli Gungubele, minister in the presidency, and Derek Hanekom, a former minister.
It is understood that Ramaphosa’s adviser, Benjani Chauke, is not opposed to a strategic alignment with Mashatile, but his view is drowned out by the advice of more trusted politicians like Gungubele and Hanekom.
The two, sources say, feel Mashatile’s image is inconsistent with the politics of the Ramaphosa camp.
These intricacies alone make for nail-biting moments at Nasrec.
How the Eastern Cape ANC wants to assert itself in this minefield is yet to be seen.