The Chinese National Crop Variety Approval Committee recently released two standards that clear the path for cultivating genetically modified (GM) crops in the country.
I understand this has been the missing piece in the regulations for the commercial growing of GM maize and soybeans in China, as the government has two steps in these regulations, namely, a “safety certificate” and a “variety approval” before crops can be commercially cultivated.
Various GM maize and soybean varieties have received the safety certificate since 2019, and the missing piece has been the “variety approval”, which has now been approved.
This means the full approval and commercialisation of GM crops in China is a real possibility.
This message was also echoed by the Chinese agriculture ministry, noting that “China plans to approve more genetically modified (GM) maize varieties”.
China imports GM maize and soybean, but currently prohibits domestic cultivation of the crops.
The change in regulations would potentially lead to an improvement in yields. This is aligned with China’s ambition of becoming self-sufficient in essential grains and oilseeds.
Currently, China’s maize yields are comparable with the likes of SA, the US, Argentina and Brazil, which have long adopted the GM seeds.
The added benefit is that in countries like the US, Brazil and Argentina, among others, GM seeds have had additional benefits such as lowering insecticide use, more environmentally friendly tillage practices and crop yield improvement.
This insight is demonstrated in a research paper by Purdue Kansas Universities’ agricultural economists Jayson Lusk, Jesse Tack and Nathan Hendricks.
If maize and soybean yields improve in the coming years, China’s import dependence could lessen.
China is one of the world’s largest maize and soybean importers. The country accounted for 13% of global maize imports in 2021 and roughly 60% of the world's soybean imports.
A reduced volume of China’s soybeans and maize imports in the global market would mean downward pressure on global prices.
However, we do not foresee this happening within the next two seasons as widespread planting of GM crops in China will likely take some time.
There are also lessons here for the African countries, which, for a long time, have resisted the cultivation of GM crops.
SA is the only exception in the African continent that has embraced the use of GM crops.
According to the International Grains Council, SA produces about 16% of sub-Saharan maize, using a relatively small area of an average of 2.5-million hectares since 2010.
In contrast, countries such as Nigeria planted 6.5-million hectares in the same production season but only harvested 11.0-million tonnes of maize, equating to 15% of the sub-Saharan region’s maize output.
Irrigation has been an added factor in SA, but not to a large extent, as only 10% of the country’s maize is irrigated, with 90% being rain-fed and making it similar to other African countries.
SA began planting genetically engineered maize seeds in the 2001/2002 season.
Before its introduction, average maize yields were about 2.4 tonnes per hectare. This has now increased to an average of 5.6 tonnes per hectare as of the 2020/2021 production season.
Meanwhile, the sub-Saharan African maize yields remain low, averaging below 2.0 tonnes per hectare.
While yields are also influenced by improved germplasm (enabled by non-GM biotechnology) and improved low and no-till production methods (facilitated through herbicide-tolerant GM technology), other benefits include labour savings and reduced insecticide use as well as enhanced weed and pest control.
With the African continent now struggling to meet its annual food needs, using technology, GM seeds and other means should be an avenue to explore to boost production.
The benefits of an increase in agricultural output are evident in the likes of Argentina, Brazil, the US and SA.
Many African governments should re-evaluate their regulatory standards and embrace technology.
Of course, this typically introduces debates about the ownership of seeds and how smallholder farmers could struggle to obtain seeds in some developing countries.
These are realities that policymakers in the African countries should manage in terms of reaching agreements with seed breeders and technology developers, but not close off innovation.
The technology developers also need to be mindful of these concerns when engaging various governments in African countries.
Geopolitical and climate change risks present the urgency to explore the technological solutions to increase each country’s agricultural production. The Chinese regulators are following that path.
SA farmers and agribusinesses will need to pay close attention to these developments. The increase in production in other parts of the world, specifically in maize, where SA is a net exporter, could bring increased competition and downward pressure on prices in the medium term.
Some of SA’s key maize export markets are South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and Vietnam, and all have proximity to China.
If China progressively increases production and becomes a consistent net exporter of maize, SA would have to explore markets elsewhere, which would be a challenge.
Wandile Sihlobo is the chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of SA